When reflecting on past decisions, do the outcomes matter?

If every outcome has a probability of being a "win" or a "loss" for you, I'll let you define what that means, then isn't the process of how you came to win or lose more critical in determining future outcomes?

The process is more important. Here's why.

Luck is outside of our control. So any intervening act outside of your control, which influences your outcome, cannot be factored into a reflection. Therefore, we may only consider what was within our control, the data we had, and what bets we made at the time we took a decision.

If you consider the intended outcome when reviewing the data, your bias - and the bias of others reviewing the decision - will cause you to misinterpret the data against the final result. We don't want this bias - it's doesn't help.

If you gave yourself a 70% chance of achieving your outcome, and you did not, were you wrong? Or were you 30% right ;-)