Life is not chess. There are no absolutes. I use this example often - if life were chess and you jaywalked across the street, you'd always get hit by a car. But life is not chess.

Life is full of probability. Before crossing the street, jaywalking, you notice that there are no cars in the distance on either side of you, it is probable you'll safely jaywalk across the street. On the contrary, if there appears to be a lot of fast traffic in both directions, the probability of a safe cross is less.

Depending on what you choose to do, you may be safe, or you may not. However, in either case, it was the process of making the decision that informed your choice.

Think of decisions and opinions like jaywalking. When you assert your beliefs about someone or something, consider the risk of being wrong. Here's an example.

"Given the piece's style, the composer's intent, and my skill, if I execute my work in 'XYZ' manner, I'll have a 70% probability of being successful."

Is it possible you'd mess it up? Absolutely! 30% to be exact. However, does that mean the decision was wrong? No.

"Given that the audience appears to want to dance, and I have lots of upbeat music to perform, I'll have a 90% probability of making my audience happy." Uh oh, your audience is worn-out, and they'd rather hear a slow song. Your decision-making process led you to a choice that worked; however, there were facts not in your field of view - the audience was ready for something quiet.

Give yourself some grace.
Think in probability.
Give yourself a margin.
There will always be facts that you don't see; that's okay.
Focus on what's in front of you.

Execute.